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Stocks of three major RV manufacturers downgraded
Sept. 29, 2008

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The stocks of RV makers Monaco, Thor and Winnebago have been downgraded by the investment firm of Robert W. Baird and company.

About Monaco, Baird said that falling oil prices and early investment in cyclicals had boosted valuations, but fundamentals remain "dreadful."

The brokerage cut Monaco to "neutral" from "outperform," while Thor Industries Inc., and Winnebago Industries Inc., were downgraded to "underperform" from "neutral."

"Disappointing retail trends can cause dealer inventory to rise and dealer orders to fall, adversely impacting stock prices," analyst Craig Kennison said in a note to clients.

Kennison, whose outlook for Monaco hinges on its ability to secure credit soon, said the company's solvency would be severely hurt if it failed to borrow $30-$40 million, which is needed to further secure $100 million in credit.

Kennison said Thor and Winnebago are positioned to survive and will take share as competitors exit.

"We believe lower interest rates could lead a recovery in the Class A market, potentially driving significant upside to Monaco's earnings," Kennison said. He noted that he expects competition to intensify at the low end of the diesel market and sees Winnebago gaining share as it pursues the lower price points more aggressively. "We believe that investors seeking a pure way to invest in the strong demographic trends in the RV market should consider Winnebago," he said. SOURCE: Reuters

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